Iran is like Russia in 1991 all over again...or is that China in Tiannamen Square
I use Facebook and Twitter. They're both innocuous programs that do their thing, but I never really give them more than a second thought. Well, right now in Iran, Twitter and Facebook appear to be the on the forefront of what could very be the start of that country's next revolution. Granted, the chances of a revolution actually happening there right now are slim, but stranger things have happened in history. When the US was funding the Shah of Iran, we had no idea there was a revolution coming around the corner either. That's the thing with revolutions; no one ever knows they're going to happen until they're already underway or practically over. Then, the people who didn't suspect it end up being the guys running from peasants with pitchforks and torches. The erudite people on the sidelines laugh and talk about how they saw it coming long ago, although they didn't really start talking about it until the revolution came and gone. Erudites are like that a lot. I'm surprised more peasants don't run them out of town, too.
Anyway, the people of Iran right now are protesting alleged irregularities of an election that just took place. Ahmadenijad claimed victory, but then so did Mousavi. The difference is: Ahmadenijad has the support of the ayatollahs and clerics, and Mousavi is seen by them as a risk. The people are very much behind Mousavi, and they're getting pissed that it feels like the election was stolen (they're claiming Ahmadenijad received 2/3's of the vote to 1/3 for Mousavi). The numbers just aren't adding up for them.
The Iranian government has now responded by cutting off contact with all western journalists, sending in shock troops to raid anyone that might dare to protest or support anyone who is not considered an insider, and universities are being invaded by soldiers/police as well.
Strangely enough, the only signals getting out from the protesters are through Twitter and Facebook. Facebook is being shut down in most cases, but people are still succeeding in communicating revolutionary thought and actions through Twitter. Those of us in the west who have given up on Twitter as an Entertainment Tonight sort of information service are starting to realize that quite often, the revolution is broadcast through the least expected method and technology. In the 1991 August Coup in the Soviet Union, Yeltsin's message was transmitted to the population through copy machines and fax machines, even though the government had control of the "real" avenues of message distribution. That "old technology" managed to take down the empire while it was trying to force its control over the masses like so many previous revolutionary leaders had done before in the past. And don't get me started on the Chinese of Tiannamen Square fame; perhaps their biggest mistake was that they didn't have a process of dissemination that was not completely controlled by the Communist state system.
But right now, revolution is on the cusp of taking place in Iran. It's unfortunate that the USA cannot support them without derailing the revolution itself; we still have a horrible reputation in that country for what we did in the 1950s, so this is one revolution those young people are going to have to fight for themselves, and then if they succeed, we can offer them all of the support they might need and want.
Or the revolution may die where it started. That's the interesting thing about these types of events. We have no way of truly knowing what is going to happen because we cannot predict the future like some Hari Seldon psychohistorian of Asimovian design. Instead, we have to let things play out and hope that we can respond with the best intentions, doing what's right rather than what we think might give us the upper hand. Part of the US's problem in the world today is that we have often pursued the latter rather than the former; that's what got us into the problem with Iran in the first place, by supporting the Shah because we thought it would give us the upper hand rather than support the idea of democracy for the people, something that makes more sense for a country that stands on ideals and beliefs of freedom for all.
So who knows what will happen tomorrow? All we can do is help pick up the trash and hope we do it right.
Stumble It!
Anyway, the people of Iran right now are protesting alleged irregularities of an election that just took place. Ahmadenijad claimed victory, but then so did Mousavi. The difference is: Ahmadenijad has the support of the ayatollahs and clerics, and Mousavi is seen by them as a risk. The people are very much behind Mousavi, and they're getting pissed that it feels like the election was stolen (they're claiming Ahmadenijad received 2/3's of the vote to 1/3 for Mousavi). The numbers just aren't adding up for them.
The Iranian government has now responded by cutting off contact with all western journalists, sending in shock troops to raid anyone that might dare to protest or support anyone who is not considered an insider, and universities are being invaded by soldiers/police as well.
Strangely enough, the only signals getting out from the protesters are through Twitter and Facebook. Facebook is being shut down in most cases, but people are still succeeding in communicating revolutionary thought and actions through Twitter. Those of us in the west who have given up on Twitter as an Entertainment Tonight sort of information service are starting to realize that quite often, the revolution is broadcast through the least expected method and technology. In the 1991 August Coup in the Soviet Union, Yeltsin's message was transmitted to the population through copy machines and fax machines, even though the government had control of the "real" avenues of message distribution. That "old technology" managed to take down the empire while it was trying to force its control over the masses like so many previous revolutionary leaders had done before in the past. And don't get me started on the Chinese of Tiannamen Square fame; perhaps their biggest mistake was that they didn't have a process of dissemination that was not completely controlled by the Communist state system.
But right now, revolution is on the cusp of taking place in Iran. It's unfortunate that the USA cannot support them without derailing the revolution itself; we still have a horrible reputation in that country for what we did in the 1950s, so this is one revolution those young people are going to have to fight for themselves, and then if they succeed, we can offer them all of the support they might need and want.
Or the revolution may die where it started. That's the interesting thing about these types of events. We have no way of truly knowing what is going to happen because we cannot predict the future like some Hari Seldon psychohistorian of Asimovian design. Instead, we have to let things play out and hope that we can respond with the best intentions, doing what's right rather than what we think might give us the upper hand. Part of the US's problem in the world today is that we have often pursued the latter rather than the former; that's what got us into the problem with Iran in the first place, by supporting the Shah because we thought it would give us the upper hand rather than support the idea of democracy for the people, something that makes more sense for a country that stands on ideals and beliefs of freedom for all.
So who knows what will happen tomorrow? All we can do is help pick up the trash and hope we do it right.
Labels: Politics
Stumble It!
posted by Duane @ 9:41 PM
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